# 24.01 Resolving the complexity puzzle: economic complexity and positions in global value chains jointly explain economic development

Tamás Sebestyén, Erik Braun and Zoltán Elekes

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Abstract:

It is now well established that complex economies with sophisticated export specialization ex- perience higher income and economic growth levels. A group of countries, including those in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), have pursued a distinctive and arguably successful economic development strategy, focusing on foreign direct investment and embedding in global value chains (GVCs) in manufacturing. However, while these countries now appear to have a high degree of economic sophistication after considerable modernization, they also face significant challenges in catching up with more developed economies in terms of prosperity. In this paper, we propose that considering the coordination of local and non-local capabilities in the same theoretical framework and empirical application helps to resolve this apparent complexity puzzle. Using a panel dataset covering 67 territories and 45 sectors from 1995 to 2018, we first show that measuring countries’ economic complexity based on value-added trade adjusts the resulting country ranking and reduces the measured complexity gap favoring CEE countries. Second, we argue that value-added-based economic complexity needs to be complemented by measures of positions in GVCs to account for access to non-local capabilities. Our results from benchmark regression analyses show that economic complexity and positions in GVCs together offer improved predictive power for income and economic growth. Finally, we show that GVC positions in services are particularly important for economic development but that a related pattern of diversification, whereby CEE countries and factory economies more broadly strengthen their GVC positions in manufacturing activities, is likely to limit their future opportunities for functional upgrading and for achieving highly complex economic structures that would be rooted in local capabilities.

# 20.56 Measure Twice, Cut Once. Entrepreneurial Ecosystem Metrics

Jip Leendertse, Mirella T. Schrijvers & Erik Stam

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In spite of the popularity of the entrepreneurial ecosystem approach in science and policy, there is a scarcity of credible, accurate and comparable metrics of entrepreneurial ecosystems. This is a severe shortcoming for both scientific progress and successful policy. In this paper, we bridge this metrics gap. We use the entrepreneurial ecosystem approach to quantify and qualify regional economies. Entrepreneurial ecosystems consist of the actors and factors that enable entrepreneurship. We operationalize the elements and outputs of entrepreneurial ecosystems for 273 European regions. The ecosystem elements show strong and positive correlations between them, confirming the systemic nature of entrepreneurial economies, and the need for a complex systems perspective. Our analyses show that physical infrastructure, finance, formal institutions, and talent take a central position in the interdependence web, providing a first indication of these elements as fundamental conditions of entrepreneurial ecosystems. The measures of the elements are used to calculate an index to approximate the quality of entrepreneurial ecosystems. This index is robust and performs well in regressions to predict entrepreneurial output, which we measure with novel data on productive entrepreneurship. The entrepreneurial ecosystem approach and the metrics we present provide a lens for public policy to better diagnose, understand and improve entrepreneurial economies.

# 20.50 Initial Conditions and Regional Performance in the Aftermath of Disruptive Shocks: The Case of East Germany after Socialism

Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich

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Abstract:

We investigate how initial conditions that existed in East Germany at the end of the socialist regime impact regional development during the turbulent shock transition to a market economic system. Our investigation spans a period of almost 30 years. Both the self-employment rate (an indication of the existence of a pre-socialist entrepreneurial tradition) and the share of the workforce with a tertiary degree have a strong positive effect on regional development. We conclude that knowledge and a tradition of entrepreneurship have long-run positive effects on development in regions that face disruptive shocks. Entrepreneurship and knowledge play a less important role for development across West German regions, where no significant shocks occurred.

# 20.24 Entrepreneurship and the fight against poverty in US Cities

Neil Lee & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose

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Abstract:

Entrepreneurship is sometimes portrayed as a cure-all solution for poverty reduction. Proponents argue it leads to job creation, higher incomes, and lower poverty rates in the cities in which it occurs. Others, by contrast, posit that many entrepreneurs are actually creating low-productivity firms serving local markets. Yet, despite this debate, little research has considered the impact of entrepreneurship on poverty in cities. This paper addresses this gap using a panel of US cities for the period between 2005 and 2015. We hypothesise that the impact of entrepreneurship depends on whether it occurs in tradeable sectors – and, therefore, is more likely to have positive local multiplier effects – or non-tradable sectors, which may saturate local markets. We find that entrepreneurship in tradeables reduces poverty and increases incomes for non-entrepreneurs. The result is confirmed using an instrumental variable approach, employing the inheritance of entrepreneurial traits as an instrument. In contrast, while there are some economic benefits from non-tradeable entrepreneurship, we find these are not large enough to reduce poverty.

# 19.03 The missing ingredient: Distance Internal migration and its long-term economic impact in the United States

Viola von Berlepsch and Andrés Rodríguez-Pose

 

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Abstract: This paper examines if internal migrants at the turn of the 20th century have influenced the long-term economic development of the counties where they settled over 100 years ago. Using Census microdata from 1880 and 1910, the distance travelled by American-born migrants between birthplace and county of residence is examined to assess its relevance for the economic development of US counties today. The settlement patterns of domestic migrants across the 48 continental states are then linked to current county-level development. Factors influencing both migration at the time and the level of development of the county today are controlled for. The results of the analysis underline the economic importance of internal migration. Counties that attracted American-born migrants more than 100 years ago are significantly richer today. Moreover, distance is crucial for the impact of internal migration on long-term economic development; the larger the distance travelled by domestic migrants, the greater the long-term economic impact on the receiving territories.

# 18.05 The revenge of the places that don’t matter (and what to do about it)

Andrés Rodríguez-Pose

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Persistent poverty, economic decay, and lack of opportunities are at the root of considerable discontent in declining and lagging-behind areas the world over. Poor development prospects and an increasing belief that these places have ‘no future’ – as economic dynamism has been posited to be increasingly dependent on agglomeration economies – have led many of these so-called ‘places that don’t matter’ to revolt against the status quo. The revolt has come via an unexpected source: the ballot-box in a wave of political populism with strong territorial, rather than social foundations. I will argue that the populist wave is challenging the sources of existing well-being in both the less-dynamic and the more prosperous areas and that better, rather than more, place-sensitive territorial development policies are needed in order to find a solution to the problem. Place-sensitive development policies need, however, to stay clear of the welfare, income-support, and big investment projects of past development strategies if they are to be successful and focus on tapping into untapped potential and on providing opportunities to those people living in the places that ‘don’t matter’.

# 14.11 The Effect of Regional Entrepreneurship Culture on Economic Development – Evidence for Germany

Michael Fritsch and Michael Wyrwich

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We use the historical self-employment rate as an indicator of a regional culture of entrepreneurship and link this measure to economic growth in recent periods. The results indicate that German regions with a high level of entrepreneurship in the mid-1920s have higher start-up rates about 80 years later. Furthermore, we find that the effect of current start-up activity on regional employment is significantly higher in regions with a pronounced entrepreneurial culture. We conclude that a regional culture of entrepreneurship is an important resource for regional growth.

# 13.05 European migration, national origin and long-term economic development in the US

Andrés Rodríguez-Pose and Viola von Berlepsch

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Have Irish, German or Italian settlers arriving in the US at the turn of the 20th century left an institutional trace which determines economic development differences to this day? Does the national origin of migrants matter for long-term development? This paper explores whether the distinct geographical settlement patterns of European migrants according to national origin affected economic development across US counties. It uses micro-data from the 1880 and 1910 censuses in order to identify where migrants from different nationalities settled and then regresses these patterns on current levels of economic development, using both OLS and instrumental variable approaches. The analysis controls for a number of factors which would have determined both the attractiveness of different US counties at the time of migration, as well as current levels of development. The results indicate that while there is a strong and positive impact associated with overall migration, the national origin of migrants does not make a difference for the current levels of economic development of US counties.

# 12.16 When migrants rule: the legacy of mass migration on economic development in the US

Andrés Rodríguez-Pose and Viola von Berlepsch

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This paper examines the extent to which the distinct settlement pattern of migrants arriving in the US during the big migration waves of the late 19th and early 20th centuries has left a legacy on the economic development of the counties where they settled and whether this legacy can be traced until today. Using data from the 1880, 1900 and 1910 censuses, we first look at the geography of migration across US counties in the 48 continental states. We then link this settlement pattern of migrants to current levels of local development – proxied by GDP per capita at county level in 2005 – while controlling for a number of factors which may have influenced both the location of migrants at the time of migration, as well as for the economic development of the county today. The results of the econometric analysis including instrumental variables underline that the big migration waves have left an indelible trace on territories which determines their economic performance until today. US counties which attracted large numbers of migrants more than a century ago are still more dynamic today than counties that did not. The results also show that the territorial imprint of migration has become more pervasive than all other local characteristics which would have determined and shaped economic performance in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.